Vyacheslav Kulagin Biography

There is no accident in this: according to the results of the year, the gas giant headed the list of unprofitable companies according to Forbes. What will become the main product of the monopolist for the next 10 years after the loss of the European market? Elena Petrova, Tatyana Sviridova, after his inauguration, Vladimir Putin, in addition to geopolitical issues, included new gas projects in the agenda for all his state visits, whether China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan.

The head of state paid special attention to Gazprom, which is not surprising. The European market, which fed not only a gigantic company, but also all its multi -billion dollar projects, from the “power of Siberia” to Zenit. As a result, for the first time in 25 years, the gas monopolist stopped bringing money. The net loss of the year amounted to 1 billion rubles.

This is an unprecedented amount over the past 25 years of the existence of Gazprom in its current form. Even the profitable Gazpromneft could not smooth out this failure. Accordingly, the state, as the main shareholder, was supposed to do something regarding its property, and not to hore all new taxes on the state-owned company, trying to squeeze the latter out of it out of habit.

Life after European business is a new plan for Gazprom: how can it look?

A new plan is a new model of the company's work in the modern world. There was a previous model when the main part of the business was in the European direction that brought the main income. These income served as an instrument for the implementation of investment both in the external direction of projects and in the domestic market. In those periods when there were losses - the closure of losses of the domestic market.

Now there is an understanding that the reserves are quite decent, while European exports have now significantly decreased and there is no uncertainty. It can be a guide. The question is, what else, including, of course, the situation with the financial component, because the tax history, of course, fell on the company with a difficult burden. Including, because of this, decisions were made, not even made, but decisions are discussed, as the Ministry of Finance says, to adjust the Tax Code.

At least in the draft budget, as everyone saw, these adjustments are provided. In the law, these changes are not spelled out, but we are talking about the fact that the additional load on Gazprom will be removed. Key objects to provide stability there. That is, Gazprom has increased responsibility. Naturally, when we are talking about new capacities and investments, this is also a load.

There, investments, as a rule, fall into the tariff. They have no prey, there is the starting raw materials that they buy, the products produced, and they sell it in the market. The price difference is minus the cost of all capital costs should contain a certain rate of profit. Accordingly, here the question is that the new generation is built on some own funds, then the question is-where do they come from.

Or these are borrowed funds, but now a fairly high percentage. This will be a fairly expensive generation, and then the costs will flow into the tariff. Here you have to carefully approach. Entering new capacities and calculating tariffs in conditions of high interest rates - this is an acute issue. At the same time, in the electric power industry, serious financial resources are not formed in principle.

I repeat: there is no prey, there is a purely generation. How much they adjusted, which rate of profit is laid down, and they receive this. The electric power market is regulated, looking at the indicators of companies. There can be no super -end. There are superpowers in markets where serious drops in prices, taxes. There is no such thing here. The internal price is in a particular corridor, there is practically no export.

The electric power industry market is clamped between their costs, and schemes and investment tariffs are used for new projects. We saw a shortage in a number of regions in the summer, and there it will be necessary to build a lot of capacities to do. In the southern and eastern regions. A number of subjects are now energy -depressing. The question is still what kind of generation should be.

For a long time I was on gas, they said that a lot should be built. Now they turned to coal, because it is cheaper. But there the pipes will be gold. The low amount of consumption, and you need to pull far enough. There you need to either increase tariffs at times, to which no one agreed, or to look for some kind of intersection. Therefore, subject to low domestic prices, it would be good if alternatives were used to the maximum.

Gazprom's export prospects - what are the prospects of export projects? In Kazakhstan, now they are talking about another gas pipeline to China. Does this reduce the prospects of Gazprom in the future? At the same time, a big question remains. We have countries that love to announce large export projects, while for a long time they do not fulfill existing obligations. Kazakhstan has a gas supply contract to China, which is undergoing.

There is a joint project with Uzbekistan.Therefore, you can say, of course, but if you do not expect to take Russian gas, but to supply your own to China, then there is no particular potential. If we talk about the “pipe”, it is clear with Europe how much you can put, and with China - how to agree on a price. While we see that negotiations are stretching.

Those branches that are. For more than 10 years, we are talking about a branch D to build it. But, since the first are unleashed, now they were silent about her. By the way, I can say that a little more than a year ago Kazakhstan announced that in the next 5 years it could become an importer of gas. This was officially said by the leadership of Kazakhstan. If you become an importer, despite the fact that there is a gasification of the country, the question arises: what were you going to export?

So far, this is rather conversations than real supplies. I would not seriously treat this yet. Kazakhstan will have its own story. Prospects for gas and oil prices - what is the reason for reducing oil and gas revenues in the new budget draft? The government has made adjustment of gas prices and export taxes. And the second is the price of oil and the volume of sales.

Then we look behind the market. The price of oil will fall, and income will fall. The price of oil will increase, and income will increase. And the second, key. These, of course, are the volume of production and exports. And here is the question to the world market, because a large fork of this year is what will happen in demand for oil. OPEC expected a sufficiently serious increase in demand at the beginning of the year.

The main hope was for China. Now China is very slowly slowed down with oil demand. Accordingly, it was slowed down, even a negative dynamics was. And in general, the world growth is far from the same as expected. There is a certain excess in the market. Prices sank. We must not forget about another component. In addition to prices, there is also a ruble exchange rate. If the ruble exchange rate decreases, income increases.

That is, there are maneuvering tools. In the near future it is clear that there are no factors for creating a deficit in the market. The only thing if Israel hit Iran. Iran exports more than half of its oil, prices will quickly jump. If this does not happen, then while the market is expensive. And then - a serious fork in terms of the growth of the world economy.

If the growth is sluggish, then the market will be rather sluggish. If at some point they decide to let it work with market tools, then the price will fall. I'm talking about oil. As for the gas, we have approximately a year when we should not wait for some take-off or fall in prices.